Olympiacos vs. Fiorentina prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Europa Conference League final 2024

A rare occurrence in modern football comes to fans on Wednesday as Greek side Olympiacos, by a sheer stroke of luck, will essentially play a European final at home as they contest the Europa Conference League title match against Fiorentina in Athens on Wednesday.

Brand new venue AEK Stadium in the Greek capital was tabbed as the match host two years ago, independent of Olympiacos earning a place in the game. They will be the first club since Marseille in the 2017/18 Europa League final to contest a European title match in their home country, and first club since Bayern Munich in the 2011/12 Champions League final to contest a European title match in their home city. Interestingly, both those clubs lost the match.

Fiorentina, thusly, will find themselves essentially on the road in a very hostile environment, looking for the club’s first true European title. They won the long-since discontinued Cup Winners’ Cup in 1961, but the debate continues about how that competition fits into the wider narrative of European football. They reached this very stage last year, only to fall to West Ham on a 90th-minute heartbreaker by Jarrod Bowen.

Olympiacos finished third in the Greek Super League standings, while Fiorentina finished eighth in the Serie A table, meaning qualification to next year’s Europa League will come only from winning this match. Olympiacos at least finished high enough to earn a berth in the Conference League again next year should they lose, but that would be a disappointing consolation for such a vociferously supported club.

Olympiacos vs. Fiorentina prediction, odds

  • Moneyline lean: Olympiacos (+190)
  • Score prediction: Olympiacos 2-1 Fiorentina

With both sides sporting plus moneyline odds, it’s clear that this final could go either way. These are two attack-minded sides, scoring and conceding goals in bunches — across the four semifinal legs between these two teams, an incredible 15 goals were scored, as Olympiacos got by Aston Villa 6-2 on aggregate while Fiorentina squeaked by Club Brugge on a 4-3 aggregate score.

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In such razor-thin matches, it’s hard to look past the home field advantage that Olympiacos have found themselves with, especially in the exceedingly hostile environment Greek football presents. In Serie A play this season, Fiorentina were 10th in the league with 22 road points, performing far better at home. It was the same story in Europe, as they won just two of their six European road games, including a 4-3 Round of 16 thriller in Israel as they came back from a 3-2 deficit with a 95th minute winner.

There’s very good value in the Greek side to take home their first-ever European trophy.

Olympiacos win
(90 mins)
(90 mins)
Fiorentina win
(90 mins)
Both teams
to score
Y: -120
N: -120
Over / Under
2.5 goals
O: +110
U: -155
to lift the trophy
to lift the trophy

Olympiacos vs. Fiorentina match facts

  • Date: Wednesday, May 29, 2024
  • Kickoff time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
  • Location: AEK Arena (Athens, Greece)
  • Referee: Artur Soares Dias (POR), VAR: Tiago Martins (POR)
  • Last meeting: None (First meeting)

Olympiacos vs. Fiorentina best bets

  • Pick: Over 2.5 total goals
  • Odds: +110 (BetMGM)
  • Pick: Most goals in half — 2H
  • Odds: +105 (BetMGM)

It is astonishing that, in a season where overs have been juiced at every turn, two attack-minded sides are given plus odds to exceed the 2.5 goal total. These two clubs have been both capable of late comebacks and prone to slips with the lead, indicating this final could get tasty, especially after halftime.

Through eight matches in the knockout stage of this year’s Europa Conference League, Olympiacos put up an incredible 18 goals, including six on Premier League side Aston Villa, who qualified for the Champions League this season. That includes a truly astonishing comeback against Maccabi Tel Aviv in the Round of 16, losing the first leg at home 4-1 before blasting the opponents for a 6-1 final after extra-time of the second leg.

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Fiorentina, meanwhile, bagged 11 goals in six games through the knockouts, including five on Maccabi Haifa and four on Club Brugge. Between them, there were five clean sheets in the 14 knockout stage games, but four of those came against smaller clubs Ferencvaros and Viktoria Plzen.

The Italians played to a 2-1 final against West Ham in this final of this very competition last season, putting up 17 shots in the process. We like at least a repeat of that haul again here, and the over 3.5 goal total at +270 even looks ripe enough for a punt.

Olympiacos vs. Fiorentina prop bet

  • Pick: Ayoub El Kaabi anytime goal scorer
  • Odds: +175 (BetMGM)
  • Pick: Daniel Podence to score or assist
  • Odds: +220 (FanDuel)

30-year-old Moroccan striker Ayoub El Kaabi has been a goal machine for Olympiacos domestically and abroad this season, and there’s no reason it will stop here, as everything the team does in the attack is meant to end with him, and he has cashed in by finishing at an exceptional rate.

In 14 European matches this season split between the Europa and Europa Conference League, El Kaabi has scored 13 goals on 8.22 xG. While he was kept relatively in check during the Europa League group stage, El Kaabi has let it fly since dropping to the Conference League, where he’s scoring on an insane 42 percent of his three shots per match average. He was held in check by Fenerbahce in the semifinals, but recovered by dropping an outlandish five goals on Aston Villa.

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El Kaabi has slowed down in Greek league play as the club prioritises the European run, where former Wolves forward Daniel Podence has picked up the slack, with four goals and three assists in 10 matches. Podence picked up two assists in the road win at Aston Villa and also dropped three goal contributions in the 6-1 thumping of Maccabi Tel Aviv, so he should be a major force in the Olympiacos threat as well.

Olympiacos vs. Fiorentina live stream, TV channel

The 2024 Europa Conference League final will be televised in the United States on TUDN in Spanish, which is available to stream on Fubo. An English-language broadcast is available exclusively on Paramount+, which is the home for European club football in the U.S.

In Canada, the match will be streamed exclusively on DAZN. In the UK, this match can be found on TNT Sports 1, with streaming on discovery+.


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