Who will win Copa America 2024? Favorites, odds, prediction, expert picks for CONMEBOL tournament winner in USA

The 2024 Copa America is building towards a highly-anticipated opening as the South American continental championship travels north to the United States.

In anticipation of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, to be held in the U.S. two years from now, CONMEBOL has decided to hold a special edition of the Copa America, inviting five CONCACAF participants to join alongside its 11 member nations.

Most notably, the United States and Mexico will join the field, joining South American giants Argentina and Brazil in a loaded 16-nation competition that foreshadows excitement, tension, and thrills.

World Cup hero Lionel Messi leads the defending champions Argentina into what they hope will be a third straight major title in six years, while the rest of the field will hope to dethrone the in-form goliaths in what promises to be a truly memorable tournament.

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Odds to win 2024 Copa America in USA

As defending champions of both this competition and the FIFA World Cup, Argentina are huge favorites to win the 2024 Copa America.

Fellow South American power Brazil is also given a strong chance to win, with a big gap between the top two and the rest of the field. Third is Uruguay, who sprung upsets against both favorites in recent World Cup qualifying matches, while guest participants USA and Mexico are further back as joint-fifth favorites.

Odds via BetMGM in USA, updated as of May 21, 2024.

Nation Best finish Odds to win Odds to reach final Odds to reach semifinal
Argentina Winner (15x, last 2021) +175 -135 -300
Brazil Winner (9x, last 2019) +225 -125 -225
Uruguay Winner (15x, last 2011) +600 +250 -130
Colombia Winner (2001) +900 +350 +175
Mexico Runners-up (2x, last 2001) +1400 +700 +150
USA 4th (2x, last 2016) +1400 +700 +150
Ecuador 4th (2x, last 1996) +1600 +1200 +200
Chile Winner (2x, last 2016) +1800 +700 +350
Paraguay Winner (2x, last 1979) +5000 +2500 +700
Peru Winner (2x, last 1975) +5000 +2500 +500
Canada First appearance +5000  —  —
Costa Rica Quarterfinals (2x, last 2004) +6600  — +2500
Venezuela 4th (2011) +10,000 +5000 +700
Bolivia Winner (1963) +15,000 +8000 +2500
Panama Group Stage (2016) +25,000 +15,000 +3300
Jamaica Group Stage (2x, last 2016) +25,000 +15,000 +1400

2024 Copa America group stage odds

At the 2024 Copa America, 16 teams have been broken down into four groups of four teams each.

Qualification for the knockout stage is simple: teams must finish top two in their group to reach the quarterfinals. Unlike the European championships, no third-place finishers will reach the knockout stage. Top two in the group and you’re in, bottom two and you’re out.

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Odds via BetMGM in USA, updated as of May 21, 2024.

Group A

Nation Odds to win Odds to advance
Argentina -400 -10,000
Chile +600 -110
Canada +1000 +165
Peru +1100 +180

Argentina are a juggernaut, especially while Lionel Messi takes the pitch. Yet even when the 36-year-old does not play, they still have the depth of talent to make up for it on a short-term basis, at least when it comes to the group stage. The Albiceleste were handed an extremely weak four-team group to coast through early in the tournament, so they should have no issues finishing with the maximum of nine points.

Below them is bigger question. Canada have too many issues both internally and on the pitch to back at +165 odds to advance, and Peru are just not strong enough of a side at this point. Chile is the best option to finish second at nearly even-money odds.

Prediction: Argentina to win group (-400), Chile to qualify (-110)

Group B

Nation Odds to win Odds to advance
Mexico +130 -450
Ecuador +140 -350
Venezuela +500 +130
Jamaica +900 +300

Mexico are in real trouble here. While they’ve been handed a group without a strong semifinal contender, there is also no punching bag in this group either. El Tri are in awful form and have not enjoyed any kind of consistency the past four years from either a player or coaching standpoint.

Ecuador have been extremely strong in recent months, holding Argentina to just a single goal amidst their only World Cup qualifying defeat so far, and beating Uruguay back in mid-September. Jamaica are also no pushovers, coming agonizingly close to springing a sensational upset against the United States in the Nations League back in March after shocking Canada earlier in the competition.

If there’s any top team set for a disappointing performance, it’s Mexico, and without a clear punching bag in this group, they could find themselves on the wrong end of a few adverse results.

Prediction: Ecuador to win group (+140), Jamaica to qualify (+300)

MORE: Copa America 2024 schedule: Bracket, match dates, times, fixtures, results for CONMEBOL tournament in USA

Group C

Nation Odds to win Odds to advance
Uruguay -120 -10,000
USA +110 -1600
Panama +1800 +500
Bolivia +2200 +550

The United States are in a pickle here. While there is a clear talent gap between the top two and bottom two sides in Group C, leaving Uruguay and USA almost sure to qualify, there’s very little room for error. Uruguay are in exceptional form at the moment, having beaten both Brazil and Argentina in World Cup qualifying in the past year.

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For the USMNT to advance, they must not drop results against Panama or Bolivia. If they do that, it won’t matter if they beat Uruguay to top the group. At this point, Uruguay have to be considered the favorites to win this group, as they are simply better than the United States both on paper and on the pitch.

Prediction: Uruguay to win group (-120), USA to qualify (-1600)

Group D

Nation Odds to win Odds to advance
Brazil -275 -10,000
Colombia +260 -650
Paraguay +1600 +350
Costa Rica +2200 +500

Brazil showed in March that they aren’t to be trifled with, battling hard in friendlies against England and Spain, but their competitive form is woeful, sitting sixth in the World Cup qualifying standings through six games.

Colombia, on the other hand, are trending in the opposite direction. Los Cafeteros play a physical style of ball and have done exceptionally well in limiting opposition chances while capitalizing on their own. Brazil should see their way through the group, but Colombia will be up for the challenge of beating them to the top spot.

Precition: Colombia to win group (+260), Brazil to qualify (-10,000)

Copa America predictions for 2024 CONMEBOL title

Prediction: Argentina (+175 to win title, -135 to reach final)

At this point, as defending champions of both the Copa America and World Cup, this tournament is Argentina’s to lose. Lionel Messi continues to prove he has a lot left in the tank with Inter Miami, carving up MLS competition on a weekly basis, and around him is a squad bereft of any weaknesses.

Players like Alexis Mac Allister, Rodrigo De Paul, and Julian Alvarez are in fine club form, and even the likes of Gio Lo Celso and Nico Gonzalez seem to step it up a notch when they join the national team setup. Only Lautaro Martinez struggles with a dip in form on the national team level, while everyone else comes together as a strong single unit.

Lionel Scaloni is a world-class coach, and he has been able to keep this squad glued together even as rumors of his potential exit swirl. They should prevail once again with relatively little drama.

Dark Horse: Uruguay (+600 to win title, +250 to reach final)

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No South American side is more primed for a shock run through this tournament than Uruguay. Under Marcelo Bielsa’s leadership, Uruguay beat both Brazil and Argentina last fall in World Cup qualifying, as La Celeste have kicked into gear.

Like Argentina, Uruguay boast a host of players who seem to turn up their performances at the national team level compared to their clubs, such as Matias Vecino, Manuel Ugarte, and Facundo Pellistri. The presence of Fede Valverde will be an ace for this side, and Ronald Araujo leads a suffocating defense capable of playing both physically and possessionally.

Uruguay could very easily emerge from the Brazil/USA side of the bracket to meet Argentina in the final, and having beaten the reigning World Cup champions just last fall, they will be a formidable opponent and one who could find its way back to the top of the South American pecking order.

Stay away from: Brazil (+225 to win title, -125 to reach final)

Brazil have never been more beatable. The Selecao seemed to show signs of a turnaround by beating England and drawing with Spain amidst two European friendlies back in March, but they still have significant issues to sort out.

Most of their struggles have come defensively, with Eder Militao only just returning from an ACL tear at the end of the club season, Ederson missing due to injury, and captain Marquinhos on the wrong side of 30. Casemiro was left out of the squad due to a regression with Manchester United, Neymar is out injured, and star forward Vinicius Jr. has to prove he does not drop his level with the national team, owning just three international goals in 28 appearances.

As second-favorites in a competition where Argentina would be expected to win even if Brazil were at near-full strength, there’s no value in backing a weakened Brazil at just slightly above 2/1 odds. If they are to reach the final, it’s expected they’ll have to get through both hosts United States and Uruguay, and at this point, it wouldn’t be a shock to see them upset by either one, and beating the defending champions would require a minor miracle.

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